are we still in the crisis?

I discovered another short essay, which I'd like to post here. I remember when I wrote it I thought that the best indication of change, the fact that would show that we overcame the crisis and started living, and not mere surviving, would be reopening of at least one cinema. Now there are several cinemas open in Yerevan, plenty of cafes and restaurants, new buildings and other construction projects, many tourists, national currency that is gaining strength day by day... That's all true. But has the country overcame the crisis? Troubling signs appear day by day ...

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Out of Crisis

In present state of political instability, poor governance and general anemia we don't have much chances to attract foreign investments that in the first place seek stability, predictability and good governance. Taking into account that and having in mind that only massive inflaw of pure investments, and not assistance can invigorate the economy, and open up the perspective before people that almost completely lost their faith in the future of their country (and lost the vigor necessary to live independent life) we urgently need to turn attention to internal investments, making good use of those capitals that currenly escape Armenia and are at the very best return home in the form of military expenditures. We need to declare the amnesty to all capitals that were created during the years of independence (irrespective of their origination), to make them legal, to offer tax amnesty and tax deductions for all capitals invested in the productive branches of economy (be it industry, agriculture or any other form of productive economic activity).

Parallel to the investigations on misappropriations and corruption in various spheres it is imperative to offer the avenue to return capitals and make them work for national economy and their new holders (in case they bring the money back into open national economy, and not continue the practive of shadow business and escape of the capital). Anti-corruption efforts should be centered not on the investigation of the cases from the past, but present (once economy regains its normal shape and transparency). Naturally, if the efforts centered on the legalization of the economy, and return of the capitals created in the previos period (most of which presumably are stolen, and created illegally) don't make effect we should focus our efforts on prosecution and return of the money by force (the main reason we should abstain from that is the involvement of present power holders and many influential people in the process of initial capital accumulation using illegal and illicit means. They at least should be presented with clear alternative to retain power and capitals they would lose in case of prosecution, be it the result of power elite change, or the result of popular revolt and unrest).

Proposed course is the only solution of present quagmire and power crisis without resorting to violence and power elite change. Other way out for the current elite would be the ceasure of independence, and inclusion into the some larger entity (be it Russia, as most probable candidate) with the preservation of current people and structures as the governing substructures for Armenian province, say. That course, acceptable for power holders today, as it seems, is not in interest of the country as a whole, because it limits (and possibly closes) the opportunity for development (possibly bringing some investments, though) tying it to some larger entity, freezes the situation with corrupt regime, and narrows our foreing policy options.

Accepting the proposed option, and starting to develop the policies based on it elite (although we should accept the absence of elite in the conventional sense of that word, assuming the presence of somewhat consolidated class of people having common outlook, interests, expertise and political will; in our case all we have is the body of people having political and military power, economic interests tied to the political position they hold, some sense of belonging to the "chosen", and sense of self- preservation in that role), would clearly signal its readiness to improve the situation in the coutry; it would signal that they bind their future to this country, and have some perspective, some vision, and have other concerns than only short-term pecuniary concerns.

H.
March 27, 2000